German online retail is set to reach a new milestone in 2026, with the German Retail Federation (HDE) forecasting nominal ecommerce revenue to climb 4.3 percent to €96.3 billion. The figure underscores a widening gap between digital and physical retail, as brick-and-mortar stores are expected to grow sales by just 1.6 percent over the same period. The HDE has described ecommerce as the “growth engine of retail,” a designation that carries significant weight for an economy where consumer spending patterns are shifting decisively toward online channels. Yet beneath the headline growth numbers lies a more complex story about who benefits, which platforms are winning, and whether German retailers themselves are capturing the value being created.
Ecommerce Outpaces Physical Retail by a Factor of Three
The 4.3 percent expansion projected for German ecommerce in 2026 represents a continuation of a long-term trend that has accelerated since the pandemic. While the early lockdown years produced extraordinary spikes in online spending, the current growth rate reflects a more mature but still robust market. The contrast with physical retail is striking: the HDE’s forecast of 1.6 percent growth for in-store sales suggests that the structural advantages of ecommerce—convenience, price transparency, and limitless product selection—continue to pull spending away from traditional shops. Even as inflation moderates and consumer confidence improves, Germans are choosing to spend a growing share of their disposable income online.
The federation’s classification of ecommerce as retail’s primary growth engine is not merely symbolic. It signals to policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders that digital commerce has moved beyond a complementary channel to become the dominant force shaping the sector’s trajectory. For German retailers who have not yet built competitive online operations, the window for catching up is narrowing.
Marketplaces Dominate, Accounting for More Than Half of Online Sales
A critical factor driving the overall growth of German ecommerce is the outsized role played by online marketplaces. Last year, marketplaces already accounted for 56.7 percent of all online sales in Germany, and the HDE expects their share to increase further in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. This concentration of spending on multi-vendor platforms reflects a fundamental shift in consumer behavior: shoppers increasingly prefer the breadth of product selection, price comparison capabilities, and consolidated shipping options that marketplaces provide over individual retailer websites.
The growth of marketplace sales has not benefited all participants equally. While platforms such as Amazon, eBay, and Otto Group continue to capture significant transaction volume, the rise of international marketplace players has introduced new competitive dynamics. The slowing growth rate of marketplace share suggests that the market may be approaching a saturation point, but the absolute volume of sales flowing through these platforms remains enormous and continues to expand.
Shein and Temu Generate €4.7 Billion, Raising Questions About Local Impact
One of the most consequential developments in the German ecommerce landscape is the rapid ascent of Chinese platforms Shein and Temu. According to the HDE, these two companies together generate approximately €4.7 billion in sales in Germany. A recent study commissioned by the federation found that these platforms drain billions of euros from the local economy each year, as a significant portion of consumer spending flows to overseas sellers without involving German merchants or supply chains.
Cross-border shopping has become mainstream in Germany. The HDE reports that 65 percent of German consumers have purchased from a foreign online store at least once. Among those cross-border shoppers, nearly half—49 percent—have bought from a Chinese retailer. This means that more than three in ten Germans have direct experience shopping on Chinese platforms. The convenience and aggressive pricing offered by Shein and Temu have clearly resonated with cost-conscious consumers, but the economic implications for domestic retailers are concerning.
What share of German ecommerce spending goes to foreign platforms? While exact figures vary by category, the HDE data indicates that Chinese platforms alone account for approximately €4.7 billion in annual German sales, and the proportion of consumers engaging with foreign retailers continues to rise. When combined with spending on other international platforms such as Amazon (which, while American, does host third-party German sellers), the total share of cross-border commerce within German ecommerce is substantial and growing.
Fair Competition Concerns Intensify as Regulatory Gaps Persist
The HDE has been vocal about the need for stronger regulatory action to ensure a level playing field. Stephan Tromp, Deputy Managing Director of the federation, has pointed to the high level of dynamism in the marketplace sector and stressed the importance of fair competition. Tromp argues that companies such as Shein and Temu operate under conditions that are not available to German retailers, particularly regarding regulatory compliance, tax obligations, and product safety standards.
“Unfortunately, this is still not the case for companies such as Shein and Temu,” Tromp said. “Policymakers need to take significantly stronger action. There must be consistent and meaningful penalties, but also regulations that can be clearly enforced, so that every participant must assume that violations will actually be detected.” The call for enforceable regulation reflects a growing frustration among German retailers who feel that existing frameworks are inadequate to address the scale and speed at which international platforms operate in the German market.
The issue extends beyond tax and compliance. German retailers face higher labor costs, stricter environmental regulations, and more rigorous product safety requirements than many of their international competitors. When those competitors can operate with lower overheads and fewer regulatory burdens, the result is a structural disadvantage that no amount of operational efficiency can fully overcome.
Amazon Solidifies Its Dominance While Smaller Retailers Struggle
Within the German ecommerce market itself, power is becoming increasingly concentrated. Amazon, the dominant player in Germany’s online retail landscape, achieved a record revenue in the country last year, growing sales by 12.3 percent compared with the previous year. Germany remains Amazon’s largest European market, and the company continues to invest heavily in logistics, fulfillment infrastructure, and Prime member benefits that deepen its competitive moat.
The HDE Online Monitor 2026 includes data that visually underscores Amazon’s market position. While the full chart illustrates the extent of the company’s lead over competitors, the broader trend is clear: an increasing share of Germany’s online consumer spending is flowing to a small group of major players. At the same time, many smaller online retailers in Germany have seen their revenue decline in recent years. The bifurcation of the market—where a handful of large platforms capture growth while independent merchants lose ground—represents a structural challenge for the diversity and health of the German retail ecosystem.
The pattern is not unique to Germany, but it is particularly pronounced there because of the country’s historically strong mid-market retail sector. Smaller and mid-sized retailers that once thrived on customer loyalty and specialized product offerings now find themselves competing against platforms that can offer faster shipping, lower prices, and virtually unlimited inventory. Without the scale to match these advantages, many are being squeezed out of the market.
Implications for German Retailers and Policymakers
The trajectory of German ecommerce presents a dual challenge for domestic retailers. On one side, they face competition from international platforms that benefit from regulatory and cost advantages. On the other, they must contend with market concentration at home, where Amazon and a handful of other large players command the majority of online spending. The result is a market that is growing overall but where the benefits of that growth are distributed unevenly.
For policymakers, the HDE’s data and analysis provide a clear mandate. Strengthening enforcement of existing regulations, closing loopholes that allow non-compliant sellers to operate, and ensuring that tax and product safety obligations apply equally to all participants are essential steps. Without meaningful action, the federation warns, the drain of consumer spending to foreign platforms will continue to undermine the domestic retail sector and the jobs and economic activity it supports.
The coming year will test whether German regulators can translate concern into concrete policy changes. The ecommerce market’s continued expansion creates economic opportunity, but the question of who gets to participate in that growth—and on what terms—will determine the long-term health of Germany’s retail landscape. For now, the numbers tell a story of a market that is larger and more dynamic than ever, but also one where the rules of competition are still being written.
