The US energy landscape has reached a historic inflection point: renewable energy capacity is on track to surpass natural gas within the next year, a milestone that would have seemed improbable just a decade ago. New data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign, reveals that renewables and battery storage are projected to add approximately 82.9 gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity by June 30, 2027, while total fossil fuel and nuclear power capacity will decline by nearly 3.1 GW. This shift, accelerated by plunging costs, policy support, and technological advances, is reshaping the economics and politics of American electricity generation.
Electrical Generation by Renewables Grew 11% in the First Half of 2026
Renewably generated electricity during the first six months of 2026 was 10.9% higher than in the same period of 2025, according to the EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report covering data through June 30, 2026. The growth was led by utility-scale solar, which surged 21.6%, followed by small-scale solar (up 13.0%), hydropower (up 10.1%), and wind (up 6.5%). By contrast, US nuclear power plants grew output by just 1.7%, and natural gas generation increased by only 1.8%. Electricity produced by coal plants fell sharply, dropping 11.3% year-over-year.
Wind and solar together, including small-scale solar installations, accounted for 22.3% of domestic electricity production during the first half of 2026. In June alone, solar-generated electricity exceeded the combined output of wind and hydropower, making solar the leading renewable energy source for the month — a milestone that underscores how quickly solar has scaled. Over the same six-month period, wind and solar combined produced 58% more electricity than US coal plants and 28% more than nuclear power. The full mix of renewables — including biomass and geothermal — accounted for 30.2% of total US electrical generation, up from 27.8% a year earlier.
Renewable Energy Capacity Rose by 45,000 MW in a Single Year
Between July 1, 2025, and June 30, 2026, installed utility-scale solar capacity increased by 28,076.7 MW, while small-scale solar and wind grew by 6,492.0 MW and 10,552.9 MW respectively, including 800 MW of offshore wind. The combined capacity of all renewable energy sources — hydropower, biomass, geothermal, wind, and solar — expanded by 44,889.3 MW. Utility-scale battery energy storage capacity grew by an additional 17,858.8 MW over the same period.
By comparison, coal capacity fell by 3,993.6 MW, and nuclear capacity dropped by 28.2 MW. Natural gas capacity, however, rose by 7,529.8 MW, reflecting continued investment in gas-fired generation even as renewables accelerate. The net result is that renewable capacity additions outpaced fossil fuel additions by a wide margin, and the gap is expected to widen further.
Over the Past Decade, Renewable Capacity Has Doubled
Renewable energy’s share of US electrical generation has nearly doubled compared to a decade ago: 30.2% in mid-2026 versus 16.9% at the end of June 2016. At that time, solar accounted for just 1.3% of total generation, and wind for 6.0%. Five years later, in mid-2021, renewables’ share had risen to 22.4%, with solar at 4.1% and wind at 9.6%. The growth trajectory is steep and shows no signs of flattening.
Since mid-2016, installed solar capacity has increased more than ninefold. Utility-scale solar capacity is now over 11 times greater, while small-scale systems have grown more than sixfold. In just the past five years, combined utility-scale and small-scale solar capacity has almost tripled, rising 274%. Wind energy generating capacity has increased by nearly a third (32.7%) over the last five years and more than doubled over the past decade.
Perhaps the most dramatic transformation has been in battery storage. Installed utility-scale battery energy storage systems went from negligible levels — too small for the EIA to even report in 2016 — to 2,651.5 MW by mid-2021 and then to 51,665.7 MW at the end of June 2026, a nearly 20-fold increase in five years. This storage capacity is critical for managing the intermittency of solar and wind, enabling renewables to supply a larger share of electricity around the clock.
Utility-Scale Renewables to Add 54 GW of New Capacity in the Coming Year
As of June 30, 2026, renewable energy’s share of total US utility-scale generating capacity stood at 34.3%. The EIA projects this will grow to 37.1% by June 30, 2027. Utility-scale solar alone will add 43,649.2 MW, expanding its share from 13.3% to 16.2%. Wind will grow by 10,216.8 MW, including 4,165.0 MW of offshore wind, increasing its share slightly from 13.4% to 13.6%. Hydropower, biomass, and geothermal will add a combined 259.7 MW.
The combined net capacity growth of all utility-scale renewable energy sources over the next 12 months — 54,125.7 MW — is 41% more than the 38,397.3 MW added during the previous 12 months. Meanwhile, the EIA projects no new nuclear generating capacity and a net decline of 3,143.4 MW in fossil fuel capacity. This means that virtually all net new generating capacity will come from renewables and batteries.
With Small-Scale Solar, Renewables’ Capacity Will Likely Surpass Natural Gas by Summer 2027
The figures above do not include small-scale solar, which is growing rapidly. The estimated capacity of small-scale solar systems grew by 6,492.0 MW over the past year, bringing its total to 62,364.7 MW. The EIA does not provide a 12-month forecast for small-scale solar capacity growth, but based on the average of 6,400 MW added annually over the past five years, a conservative assumption of 6,000 MW or more of new small-scale solar capacity in the coming year is reasonable.
If small-scale solar adds approximately 6,000 MW by July 1, 2027, renewable energy’s total installed capacity would reach about 546,219.4 MW. By contrast, natural gas generating capacity would total 518,286.3 MW. This means renewables are poised to overtake natural gas as the largest source of installed generating capacity in the US within the next year — a milestone that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Solar power alone would account for more than 20.4% of total US generating capacity.
What is driving the rapid growth of renewable energy capacity in the US?
The rapid growth of renewable energy capacity in the US is driven by three primary factors: dramatic cost reductions in solar panels and wind turbines, supportive federal and state policies including the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits, and increasing demand for clean electricity from corporations and utilities seeking to meet sustainability goals. The combination of declining costs and policy certainty has unlocked massive private investment, while battery storage growth has addressed intermittency concerns that previously limited renewable adoption.
Battery Storage to Increase by 44% by July 2027
The EIA projects that battery energy storage will add another 22,788.4 MW by July 1, 2027, an increase of over 44%, bringing total installed battery storage capacity to 74,454.1 MW. This expansion is critical for grid reliability as variable renewable sources like solar and wind account for a growing share of electricity generation. Batteries can store excess energy during periods of high generation and discharge it during peak demand, effectively shifting renewable energy to times when it is most needed.
The combination of utility-scale renewable energy sources and battery energy storage will provide 76,914.1 MW of new clean energy capacity by early summer 2027. With the inclusion of small-scale solar, that figure could rise to or surpass 83,000 MW. This is more than double the net capacity additions of the previous 12-month period and represents a fundamental shift in how the US builds and operates its electric grid.
“Renewable energy, led by solar and wind, has been setting growth records for at least the past decade,” noted Ken Bossong, executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign. “And, notwithstanding the roadblocks set up by the Trump administration, all signs indicate that its growth is poised to expand even faster in the coming year.”
The rapid deployment of renewables and storage is not just an environmental story — it is an economic and industrial one. Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new electricity generation in most parts of the US, and battery storage costs have fallen by more than 80% over the past decade. These economics are driving investment decisions that are reshaping the nation’s energy infrastructure, creating jobs in manufacturing, construction, and operations, and reducing reliance on fossil fuels that are subject to price volatility and supply chain disruptions.
The coming year will be a defining one for US energy. With renewables on track to surpass natural gas in installed capacity, and with battery storage growing at an unprecedented pace, the American electricity system is entering a new era. The question is no longer whether renewables can replace fossil fuels, but how quickly the transition will unfold and what policies will shape its trajectory. The data through mid-2026 suggest that the answer is: faster than almost anyone expected.
