The global energy transition has reached a decisive turning point. Solar power is now displacing natural gas at a staggering rate, with new data from the climate and energy think tank Ember revealing that solar generation grew 17 times faster than gas generation worldwide in 2025. This dramatic shift signals that natural gas, long promoted as a necessary bridge fuel, is rapidly losing its economic and strategic rationale as countries pivot toward cheaper, domestically produced renewable energy.
Peak Gas Power Has Already Arrived in Nearly Half of Gas-Generating Economies
Ember’s analysis of 124 economies that generate electricity from natural gas found that 61 have already passed peak gas power generation. This group includes four G7 members: the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Japan. The finding suggests that the structural decline of gas in the power sector is not a distant possibility but a current reality across a significant portion of the global economy. The share of gas in the global electricity mix has now fallen for five consecutive years, dropping from 23.9 percent in 2020 to 21.8 percent in 2025. While total gas generation ticked upward slightly last year, the pace of growth has slowed sharply as solar and wind absorb the vast majority of new electricity demand.
Solar Generation Growth Outpaced Gas by a Factor of 17 in 2025
In absolute terms, solar generation expanded by 636 terawatt-hours in 2025, while gas generation increased by just 38 TWh. That means solar alone accounted for roughly 75 percent of all new global electricity demand growth last year, while gas contributed only about 5 percent. The contrast in growth trajectories could hardly be starker. Ember noted that gas growth between 2021 and 2025 was approximately half the pace recorded during the 2016-to-2020 period, underscoring how quickly renewables have seized the mantle of primary power source for meeting rising demand. “The economics and energy security case for electricity are increasingly moving in the same direction,” said Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, senior electricity analyst at Ember. “As renewables lower costs while reducing exposure to fuel price shocks and geopolitical disruptions, gas is steadily losing the advantages that once made it the default fuel for power system growth.”
Geopolitical Crises Have Accelerated the Shift Away from Gas
The conditions that once made natural gas an attractive transition fuel have deteriorated rapidly in recent years. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 exposed the acute risks of relying on imported fossil fuels, triggering severe price spikes across Europe and Asia that prompted governments to fast-track renewable energy deployment. More recently, LNG market disruptions linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict have reinforced those concerns, further eroding confidence in gas as a stable and secure energy source. Ember argues that these geopolitical shocks have fundamentally altered the calculus for power system planners. “Recent geopolitical crises highlighted the risks of relying on imported gas,” Wiatros-Motyka said. “Countries are increasingly turning to renewables because they are domestically available, more price stable, and faster to deploy.” The energy security argument for renewables, once a secondary consideration behind cost, has moved to the forefront of policy decisions in many nations.
The United States Remains the Dominant Holdout for Gas Growth
While the global trend away from gas is clear, the transition is not uniform. Ember’s report found that gas growth is becoming increasingly concentrated geographically. The United States alone accounted for 26 percent of global gas generation in 2025 and has been the single largest driver of gas expansion over the past decade. Among G7 countries, however, the picture is markedly different. Gas generation fell by 50 TWh across the group in 2025, while renewable generation grew by 123 TWh. Ember noted that renewables now generate almost as much electricity as gas across the G7 as a whole, helping clean power overtake fossil generation in the overall mix for the first time.
Major Emerging Economies Are Choosing Renewables Over Gas
Perhaps the most significant development for the long-term outlook is that some of the world’s fastest-growing electricity markets are building out their power systems without relying heavily on natural gas. China, India, and Brazil together accounted for roughly 42 percent of global electricity demand in 2025, and all three have kept gas use comparatively low. India’s gas share in the electricity mix has fallen from 12.6 percent in 2010 to just 2.3 percent in 2025. Brazil’s gas share dropped from 13.7 percent in 2014 to 7.3 percent. China, despite experiencing enormous growth in power demand, has held gas at around 3 percent of its electricity mix. These figures demonstrate that rapid economic development and rising electricity consumption do not require a parallel expansion of gas-fired generation. Instead, the world’s largest emerging economies are increasingly turning to solar, wind, hydro, and other renewable sources to meet their needs, bypassing the fossil-fuel-intensive development path that earlier industrializers followed.
The Economics of Electricity Are Moving in One Direction
The convergence of cost trends, energy security concerns, and industrial competitiveness is creating a powerful tailwind for renewables at the expense of natural gas. Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new electricity generation in most parts of the world, and their costs continue to fall. At the same time, the price volatility associated with gas markets — exacerbated by geopolitical instability — imposes a growing risk premium on gas-dependent power systems. Ember’s analysis suggests that with nearly half of gas-generating economies already past peak gas power and renewables scaling at an accelerating rate, the world may be approaching the point of peak global gas generation. For countries still considering new gas infrastructure, the data increasingly argues against it. The economic case has shifted, the security case has shifted, and the technological trajectory has shifted. Natural gas, once seen as an indispensable part of the global power mix, is steadily being marginalized by a cheaper, more secure, and faster-to-deploy alternative. The 17-to-1 growth ratio between solar and gas in 2025 is not an outlier — it is a signal of which direction the energy system is heading.
