European ecommerce is entering a new phase of geographic diversification. While Western European markets like the United Kingdom, Germany, and France remain the largest by transaction volume, the most dynamic expansion is now occurring at the continent’s eastern and southern edges. A newly compiled ranking from the ecommerce analytics firm ECDB reveals that Turkey has surged to the top position, posting an average annual growth rate of 12.9 percent projected through 2029. This figure places Turkey ahead of every other European nation, signaling a structural shift in where the industry’s future momentum will be concentrated.
To construct this ranking, ECDB analyzed the average annual growth forecasts for European countries over a five-year horizon from 2025 to 2029. The resulting top ten list is dominated by nations that are relatively underpenetrated in ecommerce terms, yet are benefiting from rapid infrastructure development, expanding payment ecosystems, and rising consumer digital confidence. Turkey’s first-place finish, however, stands out not merely for its high growth rate but for the scale of its market.
Turkey’s ecommerce turnover already reached approximately 86 billion euros last year, representing a year-over-year increase of 16 percent. With a population of roughly 86 million, the country combines a sizable domestic consumer base with a growth trajectory that outstrips every other European market. The government has actively supported digital commerce infrastructure, and the logistics networks necessary to serve a geographically diverse population have continued to mature. These factors have created an environment where both local players and international marketplaces can expand rapidly.
Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Malta Follow Closely
Bulgaria occupies the second position in the ranking, with an expected average annual growth rate of 12.5 percent. Unlike Turkey, Bulgaria’s total ecommerce market is still relatively modest. Online spending in the country amounted to approximately 1.2 billion euros last year. The market is at an earlier stage of development, which partly explains the high projected growth rate. The imminent entry of a major international fashion platform is expected to accelerate consumer adoption and bring more structured competition to the segment.
Bosnia and Herzegovina and Malta share third place, each projected to grow at 10.0 percent annually. These two markets are vastly different in geography, population size, and economic structure, but they share the common characteristic of having considerable room for digital retail penetration. In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a growing smartphone user base and improved internet connectivity are gradually enabling more consumers to shop online. Malta, a smaller and more advanced economy, is seeing growth driven by cross-border purchasing and the expansion of specialized digital marketplaces.
The presence of several smaller markets in the top tier of the ranking underscores a broader point: high growth is often inversely correlated with market maturity. Countries where ecommerce adoption is still catching up with digital infrastructure investment naturally produce steeper upward curves. For businesses seeking expansion opportunities in Europe, these mid-tier and emerging markets are where the most significant greenfield potential lies.
Russia Ranks Fifth with Near-10 Percent Annual Growth
Russia occupies the fifth position, with a projected average annual growth rate of 9.8 percent. Despite geopolitical complexities and ongoing economic sanctions, Russia’s ecommerce ecosystem has demonstrated resilience. The country is home to two of Europe’s largest online retailers, ranking second and third by transaction volume within the continent. The persistence of strong growth in Russia reflects the depth of consumer demand for digital commerce as well as the continued investment in logistics and fulfillment infrastructure by domestic platforms.
Russia’s position on the list is notable because it challenges the assumption that high growth is confined only to small or underdeveloped markets. With a population exceeding 140 million and an ecommerce sector that already holds a significant share of total retail, sustaining near-10 percent annual growth requires continued innovation, supply chain efficiency, and consumer trust. The ability to maintain this trajectory suggests that Russia’s digital retail market is still in an expansionary phase that has not yet encountered saturation.
Why Eastern and Southern Europe Are Accelerating
One of the most important conclusions from ECDB’s analysis is the geographic concentration of the fastest growth. The countries appearing in the top ten are overwhelmingly located in Eastern and Southern Europe. This is not a random pattern. According to the analytics firm, the rapid development in these regions is structural and by no means accidental. The drivers of growth vary from one market to another, but several common threads emerge.
In many of these countries, ecommerce adoption is still at a relatively early stage relative to Western European benchmarks. Low penetration rates create a natural runway for expansion, as new consumers enter the digital shopping ecosystem each year. At the same time, the infrastructure required to support ecommerce—payment gateways, last-mile delivery networks, mobile internet coverage, and marketplace ecosystems—continues to improve. These two forces, rising demand and improving supply, reinforce one another and create the conditions for sustained high growth.
The Role of Marketplace Ecosystems and Logistics
The development of robust marketplace platforms has been a decisive factor in many of the fastest-growing markets. Marketplaces lower the barrier to entry for merchants, aggregate consumer demand, and provide the logistical backbone that individual sellers often cannot afford to build themselves. In markets where ecommerce is still gaining traction, the presence of a dominant marketplace can accelerate the entire ecosystem’s evolution.
Additionally, cross-border trade is playing an increasingly important role. Consumers in smaller European markets frequently purchase from international sellers, particularly for categories like fashion, electronics, and personal care. Improvements in cross-border logistics and payment harmonization within the European region are making these transactions more seamless, further fueling growth in countries where domestic online retail offerings may still be limited.
Poland and the Steady Expansion of Central Europe
Poland ranks eighth on the list, offering a different kind of example. The Polish ecommerce market is no longer in its infancy—it has been expanding steadily for several years and serves as something of a bellwether for Central Europe. Its presence in the top ten confirms that growth in the region is not a short-term spike but a sustained trend. Poland’s trajectory is characterized by stable year-over-year gains rather than explosive leaps, reflecting a market that is maturing in an orderly manner while still retaining significant upside.
Other Central European markets are following a similar pattern. As consumers become more comfortable with digital payments, as delivery times shorten, and as product selection broadens, the entire region is converging toward the ecommerce norms already established in Western Europe. The countries that are furthest along in this process, such as Poland, are now seeing the compounding effects of earlier investments in infrastructure and consumer education.
What Is Driving the Average Annual Growth Rate in Turkey
What is driving the 12.9 percent average annual growth rate in Turkey? Several structural factors are at play. Turkey has a young, digitally native population that is highly engaged with mobile commerce. The country’s banking and payment infrastructure has undergone significant modernization, with digital wallets and installment payment options becoming widely available. Logistics networks have expanded to cover not only major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir but also smaller towns and rural areas. Additionally, the Turkish government has implemented regulatory changes that encourage formal online retail activity, reducing the share of informal commerce. The combination of a large population, rising internet penetration, and improving logistics creates a powerful engine for sustained ecommerce expansion.
For international brands and investors, Turkey presents a unique opportunity because its growth rate is high and its absolute market size is large. This is a relatively rare combination in European ecommerce. Most high-growth markets are small in population or total retail value. Turkey bridges that gap, offering both a dynamic growth curve and a consumer market that already generates tens of billions of euros in annual online spending.
The broader picture that emerges from ECDB’s ranking is one of geographic rebalancing. Western Europe will continue to account for the majority of ecommerce transaction value for the foreseeable future, but the center of gravity for growth is shifting eastward and southward. Markets that were once viewed as peripheral to the digital retail economy are now setting the pace for the entire continent. For companies and investors with a long-term horizon, understanding the structural drivers behind these growth rates is essential for making informed strategic decisions.
As infrastructure continues to improve, as cross-border trade becomes more frictionless, and as consumer habits harden into permanent behavior, the gap between the fastest-growing and the most mature markets will gradually narrow. For the time being, however, the expansion occurring in Turkey, Bulgaria, and the other leading nations on this list represents the most significant growth story in European ecommerce. The next five years will determine whether these markets can sustain their momentum and whether they can translate high growth rates into deep, durable digital retail ecosystems.
